PMVP: We Believe Next Week’s Critical Phase I Data Will Disappoint

We are short PMVP

PMV’s preclinical laboratory results for their primary drug candidate appear to have been photoshopped, raising an initial red flag that PMV may have cherrypicked data to spin a positive story on lackluster results. (A consultant reached out to management to discuss these issues, but the company declined).

There is compelling evidence that PMV Pharma’s primary drug candidate will fail, and the Phase I data scheduled for release on May 26th will disappoint. PC14586, an oral pill for the treatment of cancer, does not have a viable replacement candidate in the pipeline, which means PMV is significantly overpriced.

PMV’s preclinical tests on mice showed that its drug needs to be administered at much higher doses than other comparable drugs to achieve positive results, and higher dosing increases the risk that the drug’s toxicity will outweigh any potential benefits.

PMV’s preclinical results also show that the drug has a brief therapeutic window and almost completely disappears after 24 hours. This is another red flag and indicates that PMV’s drug lacks the potency needed to make it a viable candidate for FDA approval.

PMV has not released their Phase I results yet, but management’s early disclosures to select sell-side analysts indicate that PMV is trying to add subjects and up the dosage in their clinical trial to garner better results. This provides more evidence that PMV’s primary drug candidate is not potent enough to act as a single-agent therapy (a must for FDA approval), without toxic side effects.

PMV’s lead drug reminds us of Aprea’s eprenetapopt, a small molecule designed to reactivate p53 protein. Aprea’s drug failed to show a statistically significant improvement in late 2020 and the stock cratered 77%.

With their primary candidate dead, PMV’s current assets will only consist of a broken pipeline and less than $300 million in cash, not worth their lofty $628 million valuation.